TREND ANALYSIS IN THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IMPACT
ON GEOPOLITICS AND SECURITY: NEW CHALLENGES
AND THREATS OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION 

Andrey V. Masloboev,  Doctor of technical sciences, associate professor, leading researcher of the laboratory of information technologies for industrial-natural system management, Putilov Institute for Informatics and Mathematical Modeling of the Federal Research Center "Kola Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences"; chief researcher, Institute of North Industrial Ecology Problems of the Federal Research Center "Kola Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences" (14 Fersmana street, Apatity, Murmansk region, Russia), E-mail: masloboev@iimm.ru
Vitaliy N. Tsygichko, Doctor of technical sciences, professor, chief researcher, Institute for System Analysis of the Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control» of the Russian Academy of Sciences (9 60-letiya Oktyabrya avenue, Moscow, Russia), E-mail: vtsygichko@inbox.ru

Background. The study is aimed at the analysis of state-of-the-art trends in the development of artificial intelligence and the nature of their impact on geopolitical processes, global and regional security. Identification and comprehending the origins of these trends is necessary when engineering effective technological solutions that ensure the achievement of national development goals of the state in the field of protecting its national interests in the cyberspace and maintaining the resilient operation of the related regional critical infrastructures. Materials and methods. A systems analysis of the current problems of digital transformation of the society as a result of the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies in all spheres of public relations was carried out using open literary sources of scientific and technical information, including reports of federal executive authorities and reports of high-tech companies, and is based on a heuristic approach and expert judgements. Results and conclusions. The geopolitical consequences of digital transformation of the economy and management based on the application of artificial intelligence technologies in the socio-economic and military-political spheres are evaluated. Global risks and potential threats to the security and resilience of critical infrastructures that provide essential functions of society and the state when using artificial intelligence and autonomous self-organizing systems are disclosed and specified. The range of promising deployment directions of the AI-based program-technical tools for urgent applications is considered. The analysis outputs allowed us to specify the problem statements and make the rational choice of toolkit for the development of approaches, methods and technologies of explicable artificial intelligence for information support of interpretable decision-making on preventive management of critical infrastructure facilities and critical entities in order to improve their resilience under destructive impacts of artificially initiated nature.

artificial intelligence, digital transformation, geopolitics, security threats, risk management, resilience, critical infrastructure

Masloboev A.V., Tsygichko V.N. Trend analysis in the artificial intelligence impact on geopolitics and security: new challenges and threats of digital transformation. Nadezhnost' i kachestvo slozhnykh sistem = Reliability and quality of complex systems. 2025;(1):126–135. (In Russ.). doi: 10.21685/2307-4205-2025-1-16