THE TIME PHENOMENON IN PREDICTION THEORY OF TECHNOGENIC RISK OF COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 

Ostrejkovski Vladislav Alekseevich, doctor of technical science, professor, sub-department of information theory and computer technology, Surgut State University (628400, 1 Lenin avenue, Surgut, Russia), ova@ivi.surgu.ru,
Shevchenko Elena Nikolaevna, candidate of physics and mathematics, associate professor, sub-department of information theory and computer technology, Surgut State University, elenan_27@mail.ru

519.87

DOI 

10.21685/2307-4205-2016-4-1

The article provides an overview of the obtained technical risk models that take into account various factors in the development of time, affecting the complex system. The results can be applied in the design and analysis of the safety of technical systems. It is shown that for an adequate description of complex dynamic systems which include nuclear power plants, aircraft, transport system of hydrocarbons, chemical processing plants and others. With the help of probability theory needed to determine properties such as unpredictability, reproducibility, stability of frequency. The classification of technogenic risk models of complex dynamic systems in which these systems have a long life cycle. It has been shown that an important task of man-made theory of risk is the design and development of methods and models to predict changes over time quantitative risk values. The paper presents three classes of technogenic risk prediction models, which, in the opinion of the authors, are the most promising. Much attention is paid to the development of technical risk models described by systems of nonlinear differential and integral-differential equations with jumps and discontinuous coefficients.

modeling of systems, technological risk, time postulates